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  • reflecting on success

    It is the end of the year — a time to reflect on, and celebrate past successes. Something we all should do, especially after 2021. But celebrating success reminds me of this quote from Michael Lewis’s 2012 commencement speech:

    “People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck, especially successful people. As they age, and succeed, people feel their success was somehow inevitable. They don’t want to acknowledge the role played by accident in their lives. There is a reason for this: the world does not want to acknowledge it either. … don’t be deceived by life’s outcomes. Life’s outcomes, while not entirely random, have a huge amount of luck baked into them. Above all, recognize that if you have had success, you have also had luck, and with luck comes obligation. You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods. You owe a debt to the unlucky.” Michael Lewis, 2012 Princeton Commencement Speech

    As we celebrate success we should be aware of all the individuals that helped make the success happen (because success doesn’t happen in a vacuum.) And be thankful for the success — I think by being thankful for success, one realizes that this is not a given, it is not something one should take for granted. But that while it required a ton of work, a lot of support, it also involved luck — all things to be thankful for.

    With that, I am thankful for everyone that helped me get through 2021 successfully. And I will admit a lot of luck was involved.

    → 12:36 PM, Dec 17
  • Rittenhouse shows the inherent racism in US “justice” system

    If anyone needed evidence of the inherent racism in the US justice system, they only need to look at the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict. Flip races of killer and killed and the verdict would be different. To call this justice is a joke. You don’t get to claim self-defense when you actively look for trouble.

    → 11:59 AM, Nov 20
  • Since Joe Rogan has been such a force in pushing the lab leak theory, I wonder if he will bring Michael Worobey on his show, to discuss Worobey’s latest Science paper Dissecting the early COVID-19 cases in Wuhan

    → 12:37 PM, Nov 19
  • It is kind of ironic that the right wing snowflakes that are complaining about “cancel culture” the loudest, are first in line when it comes to demanding a stop to teaching America’s history based on facts.

    → 8:37 PM, Oct 18
  • the stupidity of asking why Biden hasn't visited the border

    why hasn’t Biden visited the border? right wing talking heads can’t stop asking this question. the most recent example is this Reaction to Joe Biden NEVER Having Visited the US/Mexico Border idiot podcaster Patrick Bet-David who looks like he wants to be the next Joe Rogan. ok, so my question is, have you, Patrick Bet-David been to the border? to be honest, I doubt it, because if he had been to the border he would know that the border isn’t a monolithic space, but rather a fairly deverse space. Brownsville and east of it is very different from McAllen, which again is totally different from the Big Bend area, which again is a different planet from the El Paso area, which again is totally different from the Nogals border, which by itself couldn’t be more different from the area just east of Calexico, and which by itself couldn’t be any more different from the border just south of San Diego at Tijuana. how do i know? well i drove along the border from the Gulf to the Pacific, and if that trip tought me one thing, it was that there are many borders across the southern border. well, the trip also tought me that anyone who makes it across that border must be desperate and should be treated with dignity and compassion rather than with the disgusting racism Rogan, Bet-David, and their Fox News friends treat them. if you want to see the many facets of the border feel free to take a look at them here: Along the Southern Boreder now the more important question though is why does it matter? Biden would not be able to make any smarter decision on this issue by having been there. but if Bet-David, Rogan, and the like think it is so important to have been to the border in order to understand it, well considering all the time they spend spreading ignorance around topics like Covid, shouldn’t they have been to an ICU? after all how are they able to talk about this without having been to an ICU? have they seen one of the make shift morgues in person? if not, they should shut their mouths and stop talking about Covid. at the end of the day people like Rogan or Bet-David don’t care about the issues, they care about clicks and making money and they know that by catering to idiots they can make a quick buck.

    → 1:19 PM, Sep 27
  • Remembering the 600,000 Americans that died from Covid

    The response to the Covid pandemic by the US has been a disaster. The US was the country assumed to be in the best position to deal with a situation like Covid, after all the CDC wrote the book on how to deal with it (many countries used it, the US didn’t). Because of the failure in responding to the virus thousands died. But despite the more than 600,000 dead Americans this has not brought the country together (like for example 9/11 did). Washington DC has many memorials, making sure we as a country remember the deads of the past. Now a local artist set up a pop-up memorial to commemorate the 600,000+ on the National Mall, planting a small white flag for each dead American. And the outcome is breathtaking, because the memorial does an outstanding job in just presenting the scale of those that we lost. If you are in DC, I can only highly recommend going there an see for yourself since I don’t think those photos do the scale justice. You can find more details here: In America: Remember. One of the most powerful parts of the memorial is a tiny section (at the corner of 15th and Constiution) that shows the number of dead in New Zealand (25), and then how that would translate into dead Americans – and seeing the scale of those compared to our reality, behind those small numbers is mindboggling.

    → 10:28 AM, Sep 22
  • in the end all the security theater was for nothing. the much talked about Justice for J6 rally was a non-event. I guess there just weren’t enought proud boys around to stand up for justice, or more likely they were just plain not proud or tough enough. the result was a crazy amount of police, fencing and protective Snow Plows and journalists that outnumbers protestors probably 5:1.

    → 2:25 PM, Sep 19
  • at what point are we going to stop being optimists?

    Anytime some expert on TV presents depressing data or other findings (think global warming or health of the economy, health of democracy …) they always end their comment with something along the lines of “but I am an optimist and we will find a way.” … at what point are we going to stop being optimists? When will we have to face the music and realize that the data is right and optimism doesn’t cut it.

    → 9:28 PM, Sep 18
  • What if 9/11 would have happened in 2021?

    Ok, so some of the root causes for today’s political climate in the US can likely be traced to post 9/11, but let’s assume 9/11 didn’t happen in 2001, but instead in 2021 with today’s political climate. How would the US have reacted to this event that let’s be honest impacted blue states (cities) more so than red states.

    • Fox News would argue some laser eyes blasted the Twin Towers to ashes.
    • Hannety and Fox and Friends would question 9/11 ever happened. What you saw on TV or in person was just made up by some Hollywood liberals.
    • Florida would block any travelers from New York out of fear to bring terrorist into the Sunshine state.
    • Q would drop some vague tweets arguing that there was a basement full of kidnapped babies under the Twin Towers and Soros blew up the Towers to get rid of the evidence of those baby torture chambers.
    • TV pastors would argue the US brought this on themselves for all their sins (oh, wait, I think this actually happened back in 2001).
    • Republicans would waive Blue Lives Matter flag, and then vote against funding to pay for first responders ongoing medical bills (oh, crap, that also happened).
    • Ted Cruz would have flown to Cancun.
    • Mitch McConnell would argue that there isn’t a need for a 9/11 commission since “we saw it all on TV.”
    • Demands to increase airport security would be met with fierce protest, demanding “our freedoms back.”
    → 2:23 PM, Sep 13
  • Political thought …

    Who is funding the Taliban? Considering this is a group the US does not want to be in power, the question is who is funding them and why are they still being funded? And why isn’t the US more forceful in going after those that fund it? My assumption is that all those roads lead to the Saudis.

    → 4:00 PM, Aug 8
  • Daily Reads

    -Steve Keen Says Economists Get Everything Wrong (Especially About Climate Change) — extremely intriguing conversation. Will have to do some more reading of Keen’s thoughts.

    -Simon Schama on America’s history wars, race and the flag — like Goebbels and many other successful autocrats and fascists, today’s Republican Party led by Trump tries to steer “patriotism” by whitewashing history. While in the short term this can be helpful in dumbing down the MAGA crowd, in the long run truth wins out. This is a great piece looking at the issues with the myths that make America.

    history is neither in the business of self-congratulation nor self-flagellation. History is in the truth business. And if the truth should be hard to nail down in simplicities, then the least history can do is to disabuse its readers of outright falsehoods.

    The organic relationship between history and freedom lies precisely in the willingness of free states to accept a record of their pasts, stained with disaster and wickedness as much as heroism and achievement. Distorting the record so that it becomes an exercise in the genealogy of present glory is to corrupt its integrity. Best leave that to the dictators.

    → 4:16 PM, Jul 11
  • Daily Reads

    -The Downtown Office District Was Vulnerable. Even Before Covid. — the problem of mono cultures. Diversity is beneficial in pretty much all complex systems.

    -The Latest Green Bitcoin Plan Uses, Er, Coal — another day another Bitcoin story

    Stronghold aims to mine coal that was already mined in order to mine Bitcoin and thereby make it green.

    → 6:05 PM, Jul 8
  • these costs will likely add to inflation pressure for a while ... sounds like an ease up on the shipping side is still a bit out. Not sure an executivd order will help much.

    Graphic from: Biden to Target Railroads, Ocean Shipping in Executive Order

    → 8:35 AM, Jul 8
  • Daily Reads

    -This Shipping Dashboard Shows Why You Should Christmas Shop Early … a truly interesting write up of most of the challenges the shipping industry faces right now.

    It’s not just bad off the coast of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California. Ships waiting to offload are parked outside ports from Singapore to Savannah, Georgia, and big European gateways for trade like Hamburg, Liverpool and Rotterdam are dealing with bottlenecks and delays, too. Dozens of ships are queued up around Yantian and, by one estimate, more than 400,000 20-foot containers were brought to a standstill.

    -Bitcoin myths: immutability, decentralisation, and the cult of “21 million” … yes, call me a Bitcoin skeptic.

    Bitcoin is not about the technology. It’s never been about the technology. Bitcoin is about the psychology of getting rich for free.

    -Robinhood and iAddiction

    My concern with Robinhood — i.e., I believe these guys are mendacious fucks — is more fundamental. The company’s mission to “democratize finance for all,” is similar to Pablo Escobar saying his mission was to “democratize cocaine.”

    → 6:26 PM, Jul 7
  • → 5:49 PM, Jun 30
  • Daily Read

    1 truth and 3 lies about Critical Race Theory

    → 8:55 PM, Jun 28
  • Daily Reads

    -Covid outbreak at Chinese port exacerbates global supply chain delays —what is the saying, when it rains it pours? I guess that is how the global supply chains must feel these days.

    -Nassim Taleb, Erstwhile Bitcoin Admirer, Publishes Paper Trashing It— how do you value something that has no value?

    -Covid Rebounds in U.S. South, With Many Shunning Vaccines — if we have to shut down businesses again, we should send the bill to all those that didn’t get vaccinated.

    -The World’s Financial Centers Struggle Back to the Office— there is a level of arrogance in all those financial services CEOs proclaiming everyone should be back in the office NOW (but would we be really surprised by that arrogance?)

    -America’s Trumpiest Attorney General Isn’t Letting a Little Staff Revolt Stop Him — it is amazing to see the level of corruption at all levels of Trump’s orbit.

    → 6:01 PM, Jun 22
  • Daily Reads

    (The closest photo I could find that relates to the below podcast … this one was taken not far from the Port of Long Beach)

    -The Trucking Episode: Why the Industry Is Such a Mess — not a read, but great podcast episode. The data point that stood out to me was that trucking is the #1 job in 21 states in the US … all of them red states. Anyone investing in autonomous vehicles should be aware of that.

    -Opinion: Why so many Republicans talk about nonsense — the key danger posed by Republicans is not so much their policies (which are hard to come by these days and overall I disagree with) but their lack of willingness to govern.

    → 10:55 AM, Jun 21
  • a quick pre-workweek read

    The capitalist case for taxing business … I couldn’t agree more.

    The rationale of the C-suite is transparent: what we deny the common purse, we redress, or at least muddy, in other ways. It is not just guilt that makes a multinational speak the argot of the cultural left. It is not just naïveté that induces a bank to hire phalanxes of grifting sustainability consultants. It is calculation. A sly fox is throwing hounds off the scent. If I am right, then it follows that higher, better-enforced taxes spell the end of the simpering corporation.

    → 8:41 PM, Jun 20
  • DTLA
    → 2:00 PM, Jun 20
  • Venice Beach Skatepark …

    → 7:57 PM, Jun 18
  • Daily Reads

    (Photo, a street scene from downtown LA – I thought it would connect well to the first of the two dialy reads)

    -When Graphs Are a Matter of Life and Death – sounds like an interesting book.

    -What Do Conservatives Fear About Critical Race Theory? – listening to conservatives talk about this, there is so much ignorance driven by even more just plain misrepresentation and lying (but then what is new, you can’t really expect anything else from Fox News, Rogan, or the MAGA crowd).

    → 8:24 AM, Jun 18
  • Hollywood sign, Hollywood hills, and LA in the foggy distance ... i can only highly recommend the hike up there.
    → 10:39 AM, Jun 17
  • Daily Reads

    Starting today’s daily reads with a photo related to one of the stories (photo is from somewhere west of McAllen, TX)

    -Illegal Immigration: The Trump Effect — not a surprise. Walls don’t address the root causes of immigration.

    -Bring Back the Weekly Newspaper — a slow news movement

    paying attention to negative, alarming information is natural and can even be useful if one was in an immediate threat environment—like, say, the savanna during the Pleistocene era when our attention systems were evolving. It just doesn’t work to our advantage, though, in a mediated environment where the incentives are structured differently. I’d almost want a newspaper that reported last week’s news, and only that. Whatever didn’t survive as news probably isn’t worth reading about anyway.

    → 9:11 AM, Jun 17
  • in celebration of Pride Month … a flashback to pre-Covid Pride Parade in West Hollywood

    → 11:17 AM, Jun 16
  • Daily Reads

    -The Brutal Truth About Bitcoin — a really good write up. Flaws of Bitcoin as currency, but also highlighting potentials of underlying blockchain technology.

    -Does Tech Need a New Narrative? — a challenge is that innovation and technology has become a bit of religion with the leaders of the companies being treated as semi-gods.

    → 11:13 AM, Jun 16
  • missing the desert … missing Joshua Tree

    → 2:21 PM, Jun 15
  • Out of gas, somewhere in West Texas

    → 7:30 AM, Jun 15
  • Daily Reads

    -especially conservatives have highlighted all the shortcomings of California over the last couple of years, and especially the last 12 months. Now I have questioned the whole “exodus” narrative for a while just based on CA housing price data (one would assume that all the empty houses left behind would have a negative impact on housing), but even beyond housing things look pretty good in CA: California Defies Doom With No. 1 U.S. Economy

    … By adding 1.3 million people to its non-farm payrolls since April last year – equal to the entire workforce of Nevada – California easily surpassed also-rans Texas and New York. At the same time, California household income increased $164 billion, almost as much as Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania combined, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. No wonder California’s operating budget surplus, fueled by its surging economy and capital gains taxes, swelled to a record $75 billion. … The state’s gross domestic product increased 21% during the past five years, dwarfing No. 2 New York (14%) and No. 3 Texas (12%), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gains added $530 billion to the Golden State, 30% more than the increase for New York and Texas combined and equivalent to the entire economy of Sweden. Among the five largest economies, California outperforms the U.S., Japan and Germany with a growth rate exceeded only by China. … California reigns supreme with the  GDP-equivalent of $40.2 billion derived from agriculture, forest and hunting in 2020. That’s greater than the output from the next five largest states – Iowa, Washington, Illinois, Texas and Nebraska.

    -Good Podcast conversation on how important it is to get everyone vaccinated: As Variants Become Increasingly Prevalent, How Eschewing a Vaccine Can Put Other Lives at Risk — anyone not vaccinated is truly putting us all at risk … and with that causing future shut downs and more economic hardship.

    -Coronavirus infections dropping where people are vaccinated, rising where they are not, Post analysis finds — and in addition, some data that shows that vaccines work

    -Authers’ Indicators: Here’s When to Worry About Inflation — since I assume the inflation story will be with us for a while, this is a great resource to keep tabs on key indicators

    -Beige Book — and in addition to those indicators, the Fed’s Beige Book is another great resource to track in order to understand the economy

    → 6:32 AM, Jun 15
  • going shopping in Marfa … playing around with long exposure in West Texas

    → 2:15 PM, Jun 14
  • Daily Reads

    -These 25 rainbow flag-waving corporations donated more than $10 million to anti-gay politicians in the last two years — at the end of the day companies are greedy and selfish. A moral compass comes from the leadership, but isn’t part of a company’s DNA.

    -El Salvador’s Bitcoin plan: take your USD and turn them into worthless tethers — it would be interesting to see Bukele’s investments and how he will profit from this scheme

    -Jeff Bezos is Leaving Amazon for Adventures in Space — Life must be boring at the top

    -Disintermediating your friends: How Online Dating in the United States displaces other ways of meeting — finishing today with a research study

    → 9:12 AM, Jun 14
  • Daily Reads

    -How Palm Beach Balances Mansion Politics Against Climate Change — considering the value and the risk, I do hope that insurance prices will go up to reflect the risk, and that the federal government stops bailing out people who take on this risk knowingly.

    Waterfront real estate prices are rising across the U.S. in a frenzied pandemic-tinged market. During the first quarter of this year homes at high risk of flooding sold for a record 13.6% premium over less risky homes, according to brokerage Redfin.

    -Inside London’s Docklands: 40 years of ambition, politics and financial wrangling — interesting brief history of the development of the Docklands

    → 10:44 AM, Jun 13
  • Daily Reads

    -Chartbook Newsletter #22: How do you count inflation? Tracking Weimar’s hyperinflation. — considering current debate about inflation and impact of it, this is an extremely interesting and detailed view into the challenges of how to measure inflation

    Inflation can thus be defined as a shift in the terms of trade between (1) money and (2) goods, as experienced (3) by a particular group of people and (4) captured by a particular statistical apparatus.

    -In New Orleans, the Shotgun House Goes a Long Way Back — to add to the historic theme of these reads

    -as cities are opening up it will be fun to read restaurant reviews again: We Ate Eleven Madison Park’s $335 Vegan Menu, and Here Is What It’s Like

    → 11:48 AM, Jun 12
  • Daily Reads

    -Letters from an American June 10, 2021 — this is the must read of the day. This is truly fascist, dictator behavior … but those “freedom” yelling MAGA crazies and their friends on Fox will find some excuse why this is ok.

    -Prices are spiking for homes, cars and gas. Don’t be alarmed, economists say — overall I pretty much agree with this. It looks like markets also buy into this story line … the part that stood out to me and we all should not forget is:

    The economy still has about 8 million fewer jobs than at the start of the pandemic. “To put this into perspective,” Gorodnichenko said, “the employment-to-population ratio we have today is at the level that we had at the worst period of the Great Recession” that started in 2008.

    -Election Denial and $16 Spritzers: Welcome to Florida’s Trump Coast — too bad to see the morons take over South Florida … well, I guess that means CA will get more of my vacation money

    → 10:32 AM, Jun 11
  • Daily Reads

    -El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bombshell – What Does It Mean? — this will be interesting to follow. My guess would be Bitcoin will die a slow death as a daily form of payment but let’s see. At the end of the day though it requires a peg against the Dollar so why use this in between currency?

    -Jimmy Buffett Has Just What New York Needs Right Now: A $370 Million Monument to Frozen Drinks — a sad and interesting story all at once. I guess one could say Guy Fieri’s restaurant was the first clear indication of the death and Disneyfication of Time Square … this is the last nail in the coffin?

    → 8:41 AM, Jun 10
  • Daily Reads

    -The Post-Heroic Legacy of Angela Merkel — very good write up of what 16 years of Merkel mean.

    -What Hackers Can Learn About You From Your Social-Media Profile — as with most things these days, people don’t care about their privacy, until it’s too late.

    -How the FBI’s Trojan Shield operation exposed a criminal underworld — super interesting story. It will be interesting to see how this will impact overall tech usage by criminal groups, because now they need to fear the possibility that governments are in anything they use.

    → 6:15 PM, Jun 9
  • Daily Reads

    -Where Joe Manchin gets his talking points — this is probably the most important of the reads today. Manchin wants to stop deeply partisan and un-democratic legislation enacted by Republicans, only with the support of the very same Republicans.

    -THE SEDITION HUNTERS — it is too bad this is needed.

    -Sentenced by Algorithm — even beyond the challenges around algorithm bias, I feel that a human should be responsible for these decisions.

    -Bitcoin lacks a solid foundation as an international currency— I couldn’t agree more with this whole piece.

    The popularity of cryptocurrencies is partly due to the anonymity of holders of bitcoin wallets. Although transactions can be identified, it is difficult for third parties to identify who is behind them. This makes them popular with criminals and money launderers. Others see them as a possible investment. But there is nothing value-stable in a medium that does not meet any function as a mode of exchange, unit of account or store of value, and which lacks an issuer. The increase in value is reminiscent of a pyramid scheme where investors constantly hope that others will value the asset ever higher. … an international currency must meet at least four basic conditions: it must have a long-term stable value; there must be sufficient volume to meet the needs of international trade in goods, services and financial assets; transaction costs must be low, with small differences between bid and ask prices, and high liquidity; and there must be a stable issuer who guarantees the currency.

    -Markets See No Plot Twist in Yellen’s Subtle Shift — the first part, about unemployment data is interesting and I think that all the talk about the recovery hides a lot of pain:

    Measured this way[U6], the story of what happened last year looks like some kind of biblical catastrophe. Even after the swift rebound, U.S. employment has still only clawed its way back to a level it last touched (other than during the Covid shutdown) in 1983. If this is the best gauge of the true social pain caused by joblessness, and there’s a good argument that it is, then the story now is that the recovery is nowhere near fast enough. If policymakers want to heal some of the wounds and anger of the last two decades (and they do), then there is a need for years more of policy deliberately aimed at raising employment

    -Lastly, a video … Why Working from Home Will Stick — making a decision on home vs office is at the top of the agenda for a lot of executives right now. I think those that push for everyone to come back to the office are making a mistake, this video provides some good points on why.

    → 6:27 PM, Jun 8
  • Daily Reads

    -What 16th-Century Venice Teaches Us About Crypto — an interesting comparison.

    the modern state can be remarkably tolerant of people winning and losing fortunes, so long as it gets some benefit. That can come in the form of a cut of the takings; a measure of control over otherwise chaotic risk-taking; or even the capital allocation functions provided by financial markets. Where those benefits are absent, however, governments grow impatient with the turmoil of unrestricted speculation, and crack down hard.

    Though more importantly I thought was the part at the end of the piece about how fragile bitcoins future can be, as it completely relies on being connected to fiat currencies to work.

    The moment governments decide the nuisance and destabilization caused by digital currencies is too great, they will ban financial institutions from exchanging them for fiat currencies as vigorously as the U.S. enforces sanctions on its geopolitical enemies. That possibility, once remote, seems more and more likely in an era when America’s fuel supplies can be held hostage for $5 million in crypto.

    -Reality Rebellion — a fairly depressing piece, but a warning we should all heed:

    The attempted coup of January 6 destroyed two cardinal principles of American politics. The first says that we choose who holds power not through violence but through elections. The second says that when one party wins an election, the other accepts the result and forms a “loyal opposition” while it awaits its chance to win the next time. Today we have in office a restorationist administration that behaves as if proving that “government works” will somehow restore these two principles. It will not.

    And the piece makes and excellent case for why we needed a Jan 6th commission:

    In the case of the Capitol coup we have thus far ignored the truth. The coup was a crime against the state, and because it unfolded live on television as a grand public spectacle, Americans believe they know the truth about it. But we do not. We do not know what kind of planning preceded the assault and who was involved. We do not know why Pentagon officials for several hours refused to send troops to the Capitol. We do not know what the president was doing as the violence he unleashed was unfolding on Americans’ television screens. And much more. We do not know because there has been no thorough public investigation of what happened. Supporters of the former president within the political system have thus far worked hard to block such an investigation.

    → 9:25 AM, Jun 7
  • What Republicans choices regarding voting rights, Critical Race Theory, Jan 6th commission, 2020 election results, oh and Cheney show is that they are the cancel party … more specific, the truth cancel party

    → 6:12 PM, Jun 6
  • Daily Reads

    End of weekend long read catch up -The Death of Hahnemann Hospital — there are so many things wrong with the US healthcare system, just one example.

    -The Pied Piper of SPACs — by glorifying financial success society is too often assuming that those individuals can replicate that success in many other areas … ignoring the luck involved, ignoring the lack of competency in those new areas … and making those individuals believe they are actually competent beyond their core area of expertise.

    -Mexican Modern: the design revolution rooted in history — some beautiful pieces from a beautiful country

    → 4:09 PM, Jun 6
  • please, ignore Joe Rogan, I know he is just asking questions, but listening to him will seriously make you more stupid

    And after more than twelve months, Joe Rogan shows he has learned ZERO about Covid. In the latest YouTube drop of his stupid podcast The Fauci Emails he discusses Fauci’s mask comments, with no regard to the timeline of said statements, and most importantly looking at masks as a single line of defense – which they were never supposed to be. Nobody said you should wear masks and were 100% protected – they were always one of several lines of defense against the virus, with each line reducing the chances of infection/spread. Rogan’s podcasts are as amazing example how partial knowledge (or maybe partial information) can be truly dangerous. He even admits that this topic is complicated (though honestly, not that complicated), and that he is not an expert in it – well then, why doesn’t he shut his mouth? For once though, it was great to see his guest on the podcast be a voice of reason, something that rarely happens, with most guest just creating an echo chamber of ignorance and “just asking questions.”

    → 12:56 PM, Jun 6
  • Daily Reads

    -AMC is an options market puppet — this post has two parts, the first one about AMC and the impact options have on meme stocks. But the second story on impact of investors on housing market is why I am sharing this one:

    Striking numbers: in Phoenix, New York, Austin, Tampa and Las Vegas, about a third of the market is investors!

    -COVID-19 hospitalization rates in adolescents went up during March and April — even with overall numbers going down it is way too early to declare victory.

    -What We Leave Behind — really good reflection on last 12 months and looking at what truly matters.

    There is so much that’s jarring about American exceptionalism. An enduring American image of the pandemic is a makeshift morgue in a refrigerated tractor-trailer in Queens. Worse? We idolize the founder of Tesla, who’s added the GDP of Hungary to his wealth (all tax-free/deferred) during this crisis, even as we discover 25% of New Yorkers are at risk for becoming food insecure. This isn’t a United States, it’s The Hunger Games.

    → 11:38 AM, Jun 5
  • being against Critical Race Theory is like being a Holocaust denier … demanding not to teach its ideas, is like saying we shouldn’t teach about the Holocaust in Germany, because it makes us look like a bunch of racists

    → 10:11 PM, Jun 4
  • “… you must like the people … that’s the difference between a good picture and a bad picture”

    for anyone who takes photos of people, I think this is the most important advice

    → 3:21 PM, Jun 4
  • Daily Reads — weekend long reads

    -How to Negotiate with Ransomware Hackers — in light of recent, and ongoing ransomware attacks an interesting read.

    -The Premonition: A Pandemic Story — new book by Michael Lewis. I already posted about it some time ago, but after finishing it thought I should put the book on the list. As usual, Lewis finds the people that that are not talked about, but are the heros of the overall story.

    -The Tyranny Of Time — and lastly, just something for reflection …

    → 7:44 AM, Jun 4
  • Daily Reads

    -The unseen covid-19 risk for unvaccinated people — seeing the crowds all across the country I wouldn’t be surprised if numbers go up again, soon.

    -Does It Matter If There Was A Lab Leak? — The main answer is no. Will it be good to know where the virus comes from eventually, yes. But that can take years if not decades. What matters more is how good are we in dealing with the situation. And the US failed that test.

    -What a work-from-home revolution means for commercial property — from all I can see talking to companies, employees in offices will be lower going forward, that means office space needs will be lower. It will be interesting when that will be reflected in office cost.

    Globally, more than 103m square feet of office space has already been vacated since the pandemic began, according to Cushman and Wakefield, a brokerage. That is 18% more lost floor space than during the financial crisis of 2007-09. Vacancy rates rose steeply over the past year, reaching 18% in the spring in America (see chart 1). The forecasts are gloomy. Roughly one in five offices in America will be empty in 2022, according to Moody’s Analytics, a consultancy. Rents in America are projected to fall 7.5% this year; those in San Francisco, by 15%.

    -How Swiss asset managers opened their doors to Lex Greensill — a story that gives on giving. People talk about smart and dumb money. But this story doesn’t only show the greed in the system, the challenge of there being too much money searching for returns, it also shows that smart money can be pretty dumb.

    → 9:21 AM, Jun 3
  • Daily Reads

    -July 1 — Today’s Heather Cox’s column is a must read (though that goes for most days). I think people don’t realize how close the US is for its democracy to being dissolved by right wing crazies.

    -Americans Are Done With 5-Days a Week in the Office. Here’s What That Means for the Economy — there are still too many companies, CEOs, and managers who are having their heads stuck in the sand.

    -Summer Camps Reopen to a Stampede of Stressed-Out U.S. Parents — the summer between i finished high school and started the mandatory military service I was a camp counselor in a Summer Camp in Ohio. I wouldn’t want to miss this experience, I still tap into things I learned back then, today.

    -I Wrote James Bond Movies. The Amazon-MGM Deal Gives Me Chills — I have very low expectations for this partnership, and as usual it is the smaller partner (MGM in this case) that will lose out. While I can’t really say how innovative MGM has been, but a tie up with Amazon that will want to use it to make Prime more sticky will only lead to kill off any innovation left, and will drive up more sequels and copies.

    -L.A. Is a City State — If it was up to me I would be living in LA (don’t ask), i love the city, and I love to read about it.

    → 11:14 AM, Jun 2
  • Daily Reads

    -The Sudden Rise of the Coronavirus Lab-Leak Theory — a good write up and analysis. But finding the answer might take a while, all the while there is little to no new evidence on either side. And to me, still the key question should be why the US response was so horrible?

    The original animal source of the sars pandemic (bats) was not pinpointed until 2017, fifteen years after the global outbreak. (Incidentally, the discovery was made at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.) The likely source of H.I.V., which spilled over from chimpanzees, perhaps as early as the late eighteen-hundreds, was not located until 1999. … there were two possible explanations for SARS-CoV2: either it came from a zoonotic spillover or a lab. The lab-leak theory had gained enthusiasm largely because the zoonotic-spillover hypothesis lacked crucial evidence. But both of them also recognized that there wasn’t direct evidence for a lab leak, either. David Relman, a prominent microbiologist at Stanford who had helped organize the letter in Science, told me, “It’s all circumstantial.”

    -Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19 — crazy to see this level of under reporting.

    -Scientology’s secrets spill into open in Danny Masterson rape case — have been interested in Scientology ever since I had friends who tried to get out of the “church” and seeing their harassment first hand, followed by reading Hubbard’s book about martians and UFOs which makes for a horrible sci-fi novel, but seems to be ok as the foundation for a cult.

    → 12:24 PM, Jun 1
  • No reading today … instead, spent the morning at Arlington Cemetery
    → 3:29 PM, May 31
  • Daily Reads

    -Lifetime Earnings in the United States over Six Decades

    The lifetime earnings of the median male worker declined by at least 10 percent from the 1967 cohort to the 1983 cohort. Further, more than three-quarters of the distribution of men experienced no rise in their lifetime earnings across these cohorts.

    -Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market — crazy prices, but maybe not a bubble. Some interesting points in here.

    -ending with something on the lighter side: How to Make Sense of Scents — this is in a way the companion piece to the story about perfumes I posted the other day.

    → 4:20 PM, May 30
  • Republicans yet again show any lack of governing ability

    Republicans don’t want a Jan 6th commission … because as they say we already know everything about that day and nothing new would be found by the commission.

    At the same time, those same Republicans have been and are still asking for all kinds of recounts … even calling in some ninjas … because who knows, maybe in the fifth recount, and one conducted by amateurs the result will be different.

    So something where we have little understanding on how to prevent it we are good, something that have been proven many times over, let’s give it another try. A bunch of greedy, racist, idiots.

    → 1:41 PM, May 30
  • People don’t seem to learn a thing

    Looking at crowds inside NY bars watching the Champions League final, people gathering on the beaches in California, concert goers in Texas, and bar hoppers in Florida the next COVID case increase is likely just a matter of time. Last year Memorial Day was the start of the first big surge in California. And looking at photos from across the country this year might be ending like last year … putting at risk all the progress we made.

    → 6:15 PM, May 29
  • Daily Reads

    -The Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory Is a Tale of Weaponized Uncertainty — it will be interesting to see what they find, thought I am dubious the story will change.

    -We have bigger problems than COVID-19’s origins — and even more importantly, I agree with this piece. Why did the US fuck this up? That is the much bigger question? More than 500,000 Americans died. Pre-pandemic, the US was seen as the country best positioned to deal with a pandemic. Heck, it wrote THE book on how to deal with something like COVID. Why did the country and its key institutions utterly fail us? Based on the GOP response regarding a Jan 6th investigation I doubt there will be a COVID investigation … which can only mean that next time even more Magicians will likely die … and that means all Republicans will have blood on their hands.

    -A rebounding economy won’t mean a return to the status quo — last year I wrote a piece about how I think people really need to think about change rather than wait for pre Covid to come back.

    → 5:55 PM, May 29
  • GOP has shown it is a Basket of Deplorables

    I think America owes Hillary Clinton an apology. What do I mean? Well during the 2016 campaign Hillary said the following

    “You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right?” Clinton said. “The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic—you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up.”

    After the video came out all hell broke loose and everyone said that this was not the case. Trump voters were overall good people, that there were just a few bad apples maybe. Well throughout the Trump years, throughout the Covid pandemic, throughout the 2020 election, then on January 6 of this year … and now finally today by voting against a fact finding commission around the January 6 insurrection (that lead to the murder of police officers) the GOP has shown that the party and its voters are actually a basket of deplorables. Hillary was right.

    Quote from: Read Hillary Clinton’s ‘Basket of Deplorables’ Remarks About Donald Trump Supporters

    → 1:22 PM, May 28
  • Daily Reads

    A bit FT heavy today … sorry, I think a lot of these will be behind their pay wall

    -US democracy is still in the danger zone

    Like all myths, the stolen election is immune to evidence. Nor can it be dismissed, as it sometimes is, as purely the result of sore loser syndrome. Republican-governed states such as Arizona and Georgia are passing laws to seize control over their electoral college returns. They are motivated as much by what they want to happen in 2024 as by an effort to placate Trump. These are forward-looking power grabs from independent election officials. Some such provisions would embarrass Viktor Orban’s Hungary — the original “illiberal democracy”. The pattern is to deprive Democratic cities such as Houston of voting outlets while making it easier to vote in conservative rural areas. 

    -2 interesting ways Seb Gorka, a Nazi, is collecting your ad dollars — two things from this piece. 1. The GOP and Fox Nation are today’s Nazi party (undemocratic, fascist, racist) 2. The in and outs of online advertising are truly interesting.

    -and lastly something light, to get ready for the weekend Why we should all learn to love Campari — and how to drink it — I am looking forward to giving the Big Easy a try.

    → 9:24 AM, May 28
  • Daily Reads

    -Let me start with a daily watch, rather than read … I have to admit I would not make for a good politician. I can’t believe how people like Newsom don’t get angrier than this. The important point he makes is that events like yesterday in San Jose, which happen in the US on a regular basis don’t happen in other places. And I doubt Americans are more violent or have more people with mental illnesses than other countries … which leaves the only logical conclusion, and that is that the more guns you have, easily accessible, the more murders you will get. But this simple logic seems to be too complicated to understand for all the second amendment fanatics.

    -ok, so less political … Positive Marijuana Tests Are Up Among U.S. Workers — reminds me of a conversation I had with an executive a couple of years ago about why NY was loosing IT talent to states like WA and CO, and he said the reason were legal marijuana laws there.

    -Income inequality, financial intermediation, and small firms — long, but interesting read

    → 12:04 PM, May 27
  • MGM should have looked for a better partner

    When AOL bought TimeWarner I wrote that it was a stupid acquisition … I had the same view with the AT&T acquisition of TimeWarner … and Amazon buying MGM is equally wrong. AOL, AT&T, and Amazon are all pipes, and pipes and content don’t match. The difference with Amazon is just that unlike AOL and AT&T they have crazy amounts of cash and don’t really care about making money off this.

    → 6:41 PM, May 26
  • Daily Reads

    -The billionaire boom: how the super-rich soaked up Covid cash — honestly, Biden should use the graphic (below) from this story as the one and only evidence to justify increasing taxes on the rich.

    -U.S. New-Home Sales Fall by More Than Forecast as Prices Surge — to me the key piece of info in this piece is in the subtitle: “Median home price jumps from pandemic low by most since 1988” … insanity

    -and lastly some light read: A sceptic’s journey into the world of men’s scent — I will admit I love perfumes

    → 6:05 PM, May 26
  • Rather than distracting ourselves with the question if Covid originated in the Wuhan lab we should focus on why the US government and the Trump administration failed to respond to Covid, resulting in more than half a million dead Americans.

    → 10:32 AM, May 25
  • Daily Reads

    Today a bunch more links, I did some catching up on some older pieces last night …

    -Are Vaccinated Americans Powering the Economy? Not Yet, Data Show — it just looks like some people are more responsible and less self-centered.

    -Contagious Unemployment — interesting data and analysis on speed of job market recovery.

    -There are reasons to worry about US inflation — more inflation related thoughts, the title I guess says it all.

    -America’s urban crime wave threatens Biden — I agree, crime should be priority for Biden. Though also interesting to read the comments, lots of idiots out there.

    → 8:40 AM, May 25
  • Are Markets really smart, or do they just behave like 2 year olds?

    Reading this piece about bubbles (Talking bubbles with Jeremy Grantham)got me thinking about the effectiveness of markets. In economics there is this idea of the “market is always right” or the “invisible hand of the market”. But considering the last 30 years (and I will admit that is a rather short timeframe), one could think the market really only bounces between fantasy and the real-world. One could think that the market, driven by greed, really is only interested in a bubble like growth until reality catches up with the market, the bubble bursts, and then all of this starts again. All that said, it looks less like a smart market to me, but rather like a 2 year old who goes crazy until they are brought back to reality by their parents, and then they will start again. One driver for this erratic, greed driven behavior could be the amount of easy money that is floating around, that is driving stupid decisions (in a way the SoftBank fund investments are a good example of “too much money” chasing any type of investment, no matter how stupid).

    → 12:08 PM, May 24
  • Daily Reads

    -The Full Story of the Stunning RSA Hack Can Finally Be Told — back when this happened I worked with CISOs and I remember the impact this breach had on the industry.

    -Housing Is So Hot That U.S. Builders Have to Stop Taking Orders — let’s see when things come crashing down

    → 8:47 AM, May 24
  • Just a little thought exercise

    I would assume that during the Roman Empire prostitutes likely had their fair share of abortions (actually if you just do a quick internet search for abortion and Roman Empire, there are tons of resources on the topic, and scanning across them, it looks abortion in general was fairly common across all classes). Now in the Bible, in Luke, there is a story where Jesus meets a prostitute. He does forgive her her sins, but if Jesus would care as much about abortion as today’s evangelicals make you believe he did (for most conservative Christians abortion seems to be the only thing they take away from the Bible) then wouldn’t he have specifically mentioned abortion as part of her sins? Afterall, he was fully aware of who the woman was and he knew she sinned, but after forgiving her, he even holds her up as a positive example compared Pharisee who were also with him at the time. So, considering this, considering the fact that Jesus had a prime opportunity to raise the issue of abortion, but didn’t, I would assume that other issues such as love your neighbor or help the poor, were higher, much higher priorities to him.

    → 6:48 PM, May 22
  • Daily Reads

    -Real-Estate Frenzy Overwhelms Small-Town America: ‘I Came Home Crying’ — I am not a real estate expert, but reading this and looking at the prices and sales in my neighborhood I would say this does look like bubble territory. Now good news is that there doesn’t seem to be much stupid lending going on.

    -Cryptocurrency Has Yet to Make the World a Better Place — it is not only about making the world better, more importantly it is about delivering on the promises it set out to deliver:

    “…an innovation that was supposed to displace the dollar as a medium of exchange has proved largely useless for buying legal things yet frighteningly effective at facilitating extortion. … Cryptocurrencies are supposed to be a hedge against inflation because issuance is usually restricted. But that’s only true of an individual currency. As an asset class, cryptocurrency inflation is rampant: There are now more than 5,000 coins. Gold never faced competition from dozens of new precious metals hitting the market each month. Gold became a store of value because through most of history it was also a medium of exchange: Coins were once minted from it, and paper money was long backed by it. If crypto never finds acceptance as a medium of exchange, its usefulness as a store of value is also in doubt.”

    -Why Is This Geopolitical Fight Different From All Other Fights? — to me a country can’t be defined by a religion. If a country defines itself by a single religion, it is by default a religiously racist state, since religion is a personal believe. And separating country from religion allows to criticize Israel without being anti Semitic (something that should be possible, since no government, no country is without fault).

    -CNA Financial Paid $40 Million in Ransom After March Cyberattack — this will mean ransom attacks will become quite normal

    → 10:24 AM, May 22
  • Daily Reads — Weekend

    -Unhedged: bitcoin is equity, not money — I couldn’t agree more with this piece. In the past I have posted about how I don’t view Bitcoin as a currency and I think talking about it as such is a mistake. The challenge with Bitcoin is that it’s close to impossible to allocate value to it. It’s all about predicting future hype. People will say, but isn’t that the same with the dollar, but I would disagree since there are many factors underlying dollar value for example (gdp, debt, foreign policy …) This statement I think summarizes it well:

    Bitcoin is best thought of as equity in a company whose only asset is a promising but unproven technology — this is not strictly true, but it is the right metaphor.

    -Some Vaccines Help Nations Exit The Pandemic Faster Than Others — interesting story about how mRNA vaccines are providing higher protection against spreading the virus.

    -weekend listen: How the World’s Companies Wound Up in a Deepening Supply Chain Nightmare — great podcast episode about ins and outs of global shipping.

    -weekend long read 1:In a Small Town, a Battle for Racial Justice Confronts a Bloody Past and an Uncertain Future — a couple of years ago Chief Justice Roberts said we live in a post racial America, I couldn’t disagree more with that view

    -weekend long read 2:https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/t-magazine/fragrance-perfume-orientalism.html— ending on a lighter note …

    → 1:01 PM, May 21
  • This is the level of anger and energy all democrats should show when they deal with the current level of republican stupidity. right now, there is only one credible party in the US. republicans have given up on governing as well as the constitution, they are only interested in staying in power for the sake of it.

    This guy is an absolute nightmare for Republicans and Mitch McConnell pic.twitter.com/YvPTekXNgR

    — Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) May 20, 2021
    → 9:04 AM, May 20
  • Every time a Republican calls a Democrat a socialist, Democrats should call Republicans fascists.

    → 9:01 AM, May 20
  • Daily Reads

    -Shipments Delayed: Ocean Carrier Shipping Times Surge in Supply-Chain Crunch — more strain on supply chains and cost.

    Only about 40% of container ships globally were on time arriving at ports in March … The cost of moving a 40-foot sea container from China to U.S. West Coast ports was quoted this week at $5,650, according to the Freightos Baltic Index, up 34.5% since the start of the year and 228% higher than the same period last year.

    -How a New York City Restaurant Loses Money on a $14 Sandwich — extremely interesting to see the beak down and the super thin margins.

    -Katie Porter goes megaviral with MUST-SEE takedown during hearing — not a read, but the first 2 min are great.

    → 6:32 AM, May 20
  • Daily Reads

    -Novelty Means Severity: The Key To the Pandemic — overall one of the most informative blogs out there, this one in particular is interesting. What a difference one word makes, and how important vaccination is.

    -A perilous new era — the right always complaints about activist judges, but the most activist are those judges from the right. They hide their mission behind the idea of so called “originalism” … which is just BS. If originalism was possible then Supreme Court judges should have a history and or linguistic background and wouldn’t need a legal background.

    -and lastly Map of Africa’s borders if divided by Languages ​​and Ethnicities, from the ever interesting EV’s charts of the week

    → 10:15 AM, May 19
  • Daily Reads

    • Texas Reopening Barely Budged Either Economy or Virus Caseloads — this is on line with studies that showed how restaurant reservations in NY went down dramatically already pre initial shut down. Looks like people are smarter than we think.

    The health-policy reseachers’ finding suggested that behavior is influenced more by personal risk calculations than by laws aimed at containing the virus, especially a year into the pandemic and amid widespread vaccinations.

    • California Home Prices Shoot Past $800,000 for the First Time — maybe that exodus out of CA is more like a trickle
    → 11:31 AM, May 18
  • Daily Reads

    -From Bitcoin to Dogecoin: What’s Driving Cryptocurrencies’ Rise and the Challenges Ahead — mostly known issues, but I overall agree with them.

    -Bias Is a Big Problem. But So Is ‘Noise.’ — a new book by Kahneman is a bit like a new book by Michael Lewis … looking forward to it.

    -A New Look at a Wicked Emperor — truly interesting. Will be interesting to see how this story will develop.

    -Mexico City Could Sink Up to 65 Feet — global warming and water are the challenges for the next 100 years.

    → 4:26 PM, May 17
  • AT&T getting rid of Warner/HBO/CNN makes a lot of sense … they should have never bought it in the first place (complete and utter stupidity). But Discover, and Discovery’s Zaslav are not the right partners for such a quality brand collection.

    → 3:50 PM, May 17
  • I think the biggest mistake people make about Covid is that things will get back to how things were pre Covid. It’s a lack of imagination, a missed opportunity.

    → 10:29 PM, May 16
  • Covid’s transmission through aerosols has been shown in several studies, for this only slowly being communicated doesn’t help much: Covid Is Airborne, Scientists Say. Now Authorities Think So, Too … I wonder how this will impact back to office decisions

    → 8:30 PM, May 16
  • Daily Reads — Weekend

    • Why The Vaccines are a Home Run Despite the Yankees’ Outbreak — i agree that the changes to mask guidelines were a bit abrupt and could have been based on clearer, better communicated science. My first thought was that it was designed to target those that have not been vaccinated yet, but that should not be a base for ,ask guidelines.

    • Australia Beat COVID. Why Couldn’t The U.S.? — it is though interesting to see that countries that did well or very well during the first phase of Covid all have been less stellar during the vaccination phase. Though I will admit I would rather have seen the US adopt the Australian approach … and have a population that is less self-centered and more focused on the communal part of the society they live in.

    • Can a building be sexist? Meet the feminist architects who challenged gender stereotypes

    → 3:19 PM, May 16
  • To address the voting concerns that republicans have, why don’t we just create a national ID that can be used to identify voters, and we would also use as a Vacciantion Pass … or let’s call it vaccination verification.

    → 7:35 AM, May 16
  • Daily Reads

    Inside Pictet, the Secretive Swiss Bank for the World’s Richest People — interesting glimps into traditional org, facing modernity

    How mRNA became a vaccine game-changer

    → 9:15 PM, May 13
  • Daily Reads

    -U.S. has entered unprecedented climate territory, EPA warns — the other day I listened to a GOP pollster who argued that the left should frame global warming as a national security issue in order to get conservatives to care … little does he seem to know that the DoD has warned about Global Warming for more than a decade now.

    -Consumer Prices Jumped as Economic Recovery Picked Up — the hot topic of the day. There is a lot going on, obviously republicans are already huffing and puffing about money printing and too much spending, but as usual things are probably a bit more complicated. Key paragraph here is

    Compared with two years ago, overall prices rose a more muted 2.2% in April, on an annualized basis.

    And used car prices went up 10% so that makes a big dent in overall numbers.

    -Bitcoin Isn’t Behaving as an Inflation Hedge. Its Move Still Makes Sense — to be transparent, the main gold ETF also went down.

    → 8:22 PM, May 12
  • Daily Reads

    Working From Home for Some Threatens Mass Transit for All — unintended consequences

    The Untold Story of the NFT Boom

    → 5:39 PM, May 12
  • Daily Read

    Just one today, but this is a long and important one: The making of a myth

    → 12:23 PM, May 11
  • Where is the Right-Wing Outrage Machine screaming “bloody cancel culture?” Where is Ben Shapiro, Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan? all crickets. You would have thought they get upset when a group tries to silence and cancel a conservative public figure for telling the truth. But no, nothing. I guess the difference is that Il Duce down in Mar-A-Lago has decided that being conservative and standing up for the truth is just not cutting it. Instead he and his spineless minions want blood because Cheney spoke the truth, and they want her replaced with someone who doesn’t think, oh and is a racist and is ok with police officers getting killed. That is the state of the Republican party in 2021 – a party that has not agenda (the only agenda is self preservation, self enrichment), a party that stands for white nationalism and racism, a party that praises ignorance and pushes violence – all while claiming to represent christian values. A joke, if it wouldn’t be so dangerous.

    → 9:57 AM, May 10
  • Daily Reads

    • Creative destruction is the silver lining of the Covid-19 crisis (Paywall) managing the acceleration of change as we enter a Covid world will be key, I couldn’t agree more. The last 5 years have shown how poor change management of globalization led to nationalism and Trump.

    Change is good. However, if we don’t acknowledge the full extent of the transformation that we are going through, we’ll end up with all the problems of the pre-pandemic economy, but on steroids.

    • Elon Musk’s SpaceX Is Buying Up a Texas Village. Homeowners Cry Foul
    → 7:56 PM, May 9
  • Life and Liberty

    Another weekend read. This one from today’s Bloomberg columnist John Auther’s column Covid Pitted Life Against Liberty and Vanquished Both which is and outstanding piece on where does an individual’s liberty impact another person’s pursuit of happiness? Across the last twelve months there have been many people screaming that their freedoms had been taken away from them. Most (all those people screeming in stores) clearly have no idea about law and the constituion. But in general these complaints were usually about how their own freedoms were impacted, not taking into account how they were impacting other people’s freedoms. Auther does a great job in summarizing the various concepts of freedom and liberty, the various types – negative liberty (freedom from interference, the freedom to be left alone) and positive liberty (the freedom to do what one wants).

    But to me one of the critical quotes comes fairly early on in the piece, it is by John Locke and I think it addresses a key part, more or less the golden rule, which is too often forgotten by those screaming freedom: Locke believed in natural rights to life, liberty and property. But for men to be free, he saw that they must allow others to be free. Thus, in his formulation, freedom did not include a right to “harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possessions” and included an obligation to “preserve the rest of mankind.”

    Auther keeps on going through various thinkers, economics, philosophers (oh and also Ayn Rand who in my view is not a philosopher but should really be considered just a third rate auther) and how they interpreted the limits of liberty and freedom, especially when it comes to when those freedoms impact other people’s freedom or pursuit of happiness.

    My view is very much that ones rights, as well as freedomes can’t interfer with another person’s rights and liberties and the last paragraphy by Auther makes this point much better than I could:

    Locke believed in natural rights to life, liberty and property. But for men to be free, he saw that they must allow others to be free. Thus, in his formulation, freedom did not include a right to “harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possessions” and included an obligation to “preserve the rest of mankind.”

    → 3:19 PM, May 9
  • One gets a vaccine to protect the community one lives in. It is truly protecting others from dying. It baffles my mind to see people being so selfish and not get vaccinated (and many of them even call themselves Christians)

    → 9:21 AM, May 9
  • Daily Reads

    • If Crypto Crashes Tomorrow, It’s No Big Deal. In Five Years, It Might Be

    • What magic teaches us about misinformation

    • and, since it’s still the weekend, something to watch: After the Gig: How the Sharing Economy Got Hijacked

    → 2:59 PM, May 8
  • Daily Reads -- Weekend

    • From Dutch Tulips to Internet Stocks, How to Spot a Financial Bubble – reminds me of a conversation I had earlier this year with a guy who cut my hair and started talking about bitcoin. when I asked him how he compared bitcoin to tulips he had no idea about tulip mania.
    • Listen and this should really be called Pre-Listen since this podcast interview with Michael Lewis about his new book might soon end up in the Longread section since I started reading right after listening to this podcast: Michael Lewis on White House Pandemic Planning
    • Semi Longread: Past Due - Report and Recommendations of the Los Angeles Mayor’s Office Civic Memory Working Group – a really interesting, historic view of LA
    • Longread: Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business – this Neil Postman book, written in 1984 could not be more current.

    Story to keep on the radar: Cyber-Attack Shuts Down Biggest Gasoline Pipeline in U.S.

    → 11:16 AM, May 8
  • Despite all the positive news from the stock market, general economic indicators, and also the job market, it’s important to realize the country is still down 8.2 million jobs, compared to pre Covid.

    → 6:37 PM, May 7
  • Daily Reads — Business Friday

    Many Small Businesses in the Services Sector Are Unlikely to Reopen

    Dogecoin’s 12,000% Rally Spurs Hunt for Next Crypto Winner — WSJ (paywall?)

    A reckoning for Spacs: will regulators deflate the boom? — FT (paywall?)

    → 5:35 AM, May 7
  • Tucker Carlson yet again spreads a lie about Covid vaccines

    Let’s be totally clear here, lies about Covid and Covid vaccines like those by racist idiot Tucker Carlson (and his fellow rightwing, racists, libertarian bedfellows like Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, Ben Shapiro …) are what is hurting our economy. It is what is causing shut downs. It is what is causing people to die. At which point do we act on this and treat these lies as murders, and hold those that spread these lies that directly lead to deaths accountable.

    → 5:19 PM, May 6
  • Daily reads:

    Facebook’s problem isn’t Trump — it’s the algorithm

    War With China Over Taiwan Is Not A Fictional Worry

    Driscoll’s Desperately Needs to Know America’s Appetite for Strawberries

    → 2:29 PM, May 6
  • I rarely agree with Liz Cheney. But considering how few Republicans these days have a backbone and stand up for their ideals it is important to call out those that do, like Liz Cheney. I assume her Op-Ed The GOP is at a turning point. History is watching us will mean the end for many of her ambitions in the party, which makes it ever so much more important. Overall I agree with her, though I think she is wrong to assume that the GOP is at a turning point, I think the GOP took the wrong turn at least four years ago by allowing Trump to define it.

    → 6:26 PM, May 5
  • why don't we have a gas station chain for EVs yet?

    And yes, i know there are all kinds of EV charging station companies. But even though it takes like max 5 min to fill up a gas car, a whole industry has been created to cater to the clients of gas stations, offering anything from stores to cafes and restaurants. But when it comes to ev charge points, i usually just see them standing by themselves or in a parking lot. why hasn’t Starbucks added a EV charging station network to its stores yet?

    → 4:00 PM, May 4
  • it’s not the supporters of masks, shut downs, physical distancing, and vaccines that are damaging the economy and limiting our freedoms. the people AGAINST masks, AGAINST shut downs, AGAINST physical distancing, and AGAINST vaccines are driving business into bankruptcy, are killing the economy. are limiting the freedoms of all of us to get beyond covid

    → 3:28 PM, May 4
  • looking at investors like Softbank, but also the Saudi Wealth Fund, or a lot of Venture Companies, it looks like the more money these so called smart money investors have, the dumber their investment decisions become

    → 9:58 AM, May 4
  • Prospertity Gospel and the Lack of Community

    One can have many issues with organized religion, like the catholic church, but one benefit that it has provided over the decades is that it provided community. Over the last couple of years there have been growing research into the increase in people feeling lonely – potentially leading to increase in drug addiction and increase in accepting conspiracy theories. I know too little about those, but at the end of the day, I think the idea that loneliness can lead to those things is at least plausible to me. What always struck me was that to me the US felt like a much more religious country, compared at least to Europe, where I come from. So I always thought it was odd that a country that had higher levels of people going to church had higher levels of loneliness sounded odd. Now there are likely many reasons for that, but one thought that cross my mind the other day was that maybe the type of religious affiliation in the US is leading to increase loneliness, while the more traditional religious affiliations (catholic and protestant churches) in Europe have the opposite impact. To me the traditional Christian church usually focused on the poor, the ones that need help. That meant that the poor or less well off, felt supported by the church. It also made those that were able to help those in need feel good about themselves since they were able to support the community. In the US the growth of the Prosperity Gospel to me could be a key reason for loneliness. Prosperity Gospel at the end of the day focuses on the individual over the community, and especially the individual’s success. So if you are successful God loves you, the opposite of that being that if you are not rich you could interpret that as God doesn’t love you, so that you are a failure in front of God, in front of what is supposed to be the community that supports you. This nicely helps justify their wealth for the rich (and justifies the private jets and nice cars for the pastors of those “churches”) but it does so at the expense of the community support the traditional churches provide.

    → 12:20 PM, May 2
  • it is all about ME

    what the last year has made quite obvious is how little evangelicals have in common with Jesus (whose teachings, if i am not mistaken, they claim to follow.) while everything about Jesus was about you and us, everything about evangelicals is about the ME. it is about MY right to worship. it is about how gay marriage impacts ME and MY marriage. it is about MY believes that should govern you. it is about MY body and MY decision to get a vaccine or not.

    in no way do these so called followers of Jesus think about US, or YOU. The focus should be “how can i ensure i don’t spread a deadly virus to others." And the same goes for the other believes that are so dear to the heart of evangelicals – from abortion to gay marriage, to vaccine and mask rules.

    to follow in the steps of Jesus should be to focus on YOU and US, it is not about ME. The focus should not be on how others can make YOUR life better, or how they need to follow YOUR believes, it should be about how you can help the OTHER, how you and protect the OTHER, how you can support US.

    → 5:59 PM, Apr 25
  • If any American would have sat on a handcuffed person’s chest for 10 minutes there would have been little question that the death that followed that action was murder. Police is not and should not be above the law, yet they are thought of and treated too often like they are

    → 8:48 AM, Apr 24
  • I have to say the whole Dogecoin rally just adds to my concerns about crypto. Currency or investments are about trust. But Dogecoin was created as a joke, what level of trust can you truly have in that? This is pure Vegas.

    → 9:43 AM, Apr 21
  • One child dies on a Peloton treadmill and there are calls for recalls, sales stops, and request for the Peloton to make changes to the product. At the same time, about 1300 children die every year in the US due to gun accidents … and nothing is done.

    → 8:40 AM, Apr 20
  • I don’t condone violence but the difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats incite violence for actual injustice that is happening, while Republicans incite violence to support a lie.

    → 8:44 PM, Apr 19
  • Guns don’t kill people, people kill people … I think I summarized the common excuse by gun fanatics correctly. So then this is like saying hammers don’t get nails into walls, humans do. But then try to get a nail into a wall with let’s say a pillow.

    → 12:05 PM, Apr 19
  • I think at the end of the day, the lack of strict enforcement of mask use and physical distancing will be key reasons for ongoing need for local shutdowns and negative impact on economic activity.

    → 8:21 PM, Apr 18
  • aryans seem to be to german racists, what anglo-saxons are to american racists.

    → 3:37 PM, Apr 18
  • as people throw around the term “freedoms” all the time, to justify anything it is worth remembering: “The textbook definition of a free society is that you are free to do as you please as long as it does not impinge on anyone else’s freedom.” … from America’s limbo between pandemic and freedom

    → 8:22 PM, Apr 16
  • isnt' it funny that the people that demand people have IDs in order to vote, are the same people that cry “over my dead body" when it comes to creating some form of proof/documentation for vaccination.

    → 10:16 AM, Apr 16
  • Vaccine Passports are yet another non issue talking heads turn to

    i think a key problem with all the 24/7 news channels and podcasts is that they need to have constant talking points to get the attention of their audiences. one of the latest issues is the so called “vaccine passports” … people like Joe Rogan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZqHvpRJtnI) on the right of libertarian side and Russell Brand (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGgvgKE0n8o) more on the left of the libertarian spectrum have big issues about these passports.

    Today, already doctors document if someone gets a vaccine (https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/admin/document-vaccines.html). I have a little yellow document that I take to my doctor when I get a new tetanus vaccine. This helps to ensure you stay up on vaccines, know which ones you have (and don’t have), and can prove you have it when you for example travel.

    So the question is a vaccine passport doable and practical? Well, it is, because it is already done.

    Do you infringe on people’s rights? Well, when I applied for a Green Card, I had to prove I had vaccines so the US already requests proof of vaccination (like schools and other places a lot of time already do).

    This is yet another of these situations where talking heads like Joe Rogan who have little to no knowledge about the issues he talks about spreads wildly inaccurate and made up ideas that his listeners eat up and then go chanting on street corners, complaining a vaccine passport “infringes on their liberties.”

    What these idiots don’t realize, or don’t want to realize is that just like the non-maskers, the non-vacciners are infringing on all of the rest of our’s liberties. Just because they are ok with endangering others by not wearing masks and not getting vaccinated they are increasing the risk of all the rest of us, increasing the negative economic impact. A vaccine allows us to get back to normal faster, but only if all of us get it. If not, variants will spread and result in more lock downs. To provide safe environments knowing who got a vaccine is key, a document that shows that is the easiest solution. If someone doesn’t won’t to get vaccinated, well don’t, but then don’t complain that you can’t travel – it’s your freedom not to get vaccinated, but with that freedom come consequences … because it is all of our freedom to not want to be in the same plane as you are.

    → 10:56 AM, Apr 13
  • I think the big mistake people make about Bitcoin is to confuse it as a currency. At most it is a gold replacement. That leads to the question how safe is Bitcoin truly to function as a non-governmental value storage.

    → 6:42 PM, Apr 10
  • we should fear Joe Rogan more than Alex Jones

    Way worse than the crazies like Alex Jones, are the so called moderate, libertarians, the likes of Joe Rogan and Bill Burr that are just “fucking asking questions." Just listening to the 10 min clip of Joe’s conversation with Dan Crenshaw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHsUgWfUcss) makes you want to puke. So the last year has shown us how weak and fragile we are? Yes, I know more than 500,000 Americans were too fragile and weak and I assume that is why they died. They didn’t die because Republican politicians like Crenshaw ignored any expert suggestions and enforce basic, reasonable policies that have shown can allow countries to live with the virus (see Taiwan, see Australia, see New Zealand), but no, in this imaginary libertarian world of Rogan and Crenshaw the weak ones are the ones that wear masks, that keep physical distance. It is these weak ones that are the ones that lead us down the path of economic decline – ignoring all the facts out there that people even before any restrictions were put in place already reduced their social and economic activity (because trying not to die is not a sign of weakness, it is actually pretty smart).

    And let’s be clear Rogan, Crenshaw, and Burr are not “just asking questions,” their questions have implicit answers. “Who are all the bankers?" was “just a question” that was raised quite a bit in 1930s Germany, and there was an implicit answer. So yes, it is ok to ask questions, but one should have the real curiosity to figure out the answers and not ask them as a dog whistle for far right racists. Rogan likes to “just ask questions” about the homeless in CA, but rather than actually look at the problem the “question” becomes a dog whistle against so called liberal policies, ignoring all of the underlying challenges in the US that are leading to the true problem of homelessness (anything from jobs that don’t pay a living wage, to lack of health insurance that drives people into bankruptcy, to help for mental illness.) But those would all be very complex issues to deal with and wouldn’t make for nice sound bites, so instead, let’s just “ask questions.”

    → 12:33 PM, Apr 10
  • Q and Bitcoin

    After watching HBO’s Q:Into the Storm and then listening to Exponential View’s podcast Bitcoin and the Future of Decentralized Finance I couldn’t stop thinking how both of those groups (Q believers and Bitcoin evangelists) have a similar way to dismissing basic questions and structuring their arguments in very similar ways – that don’t really allow for non-believers to dispel their thinking.

    → 5:50 PM, Apr 8
  • Corporate Free Speech is Limited to Money

    Republicans and their Supreme Court cronies have for decades now fought to make corporations be considered to a person. The result has been changes in the way we think about free speech, and especially campaign contributions from corporations. And as long as those corporations spoke only via their check books (preferably checks written out to GOP candidates) all was fine in McConnell land. But now these corporations have found voices beyond money, they have made their opinions heard, and that is suddenly no longer what Republicans had envisioned. So in a classic High-Noon speech, McConnell came out blazing, furious that his corporate cronies spoke out, against Republican lies. This whole statement of his is just too rich to comment on everything he said, so absolutely worth a read: www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/…

    → 8:25 AM, Apr 6
  • quick introduction

    Ok, so let me write my first post here. I am really looking forward to learning more about the platform and community since I have been frustrated with all the „social“ services for a while. I won‘t always be able to keep this blog tightly focused around a single or maybe even a handful of topics, but the type of things I will be writing about are likely going to be: politics, media, language in politics and media, and maybe some business, and I could see some photography and art making it into here every now and then.

    → 8:25 PM, Mar 30
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